The week-13 planned peak
Clients declare peaks two weeks out on one page. The holiday promo arrived as a plan input instead of a Thursday emergency, and 249 OT hours were chosen, not absorbed.
The quarter-results exhibit is the engagement's scoreboard: one trend line, thirteen weeks, and a deliberate up-week at the end. Overtime hours fell from a 320-hour weekly average to a planned floor, and the one week they rose, they rose on purpose: chosen on Monday, staffed by volunteers, for a promo declared two weeks out.
A client holiday promo landed in week 13, declared two weeks out through the promo-intake rule. The capacity plan showed the gap on Monday, overtime was chosen that morning at the crews the supervisors picked, and the crews volunteered in advance. 249 OT hours, every one of them scheduled before the week began. No Thursday panic, no floor walk, no surprise on the finance lead's report.
Overtime did not disappear. It became a decision. Twelve weeks stepped down as the forecast, the standards, and the Monday cadence took hold. The thirteenth week stepped up, on purpose, and still finished 22% under the prior-quarter average. That is the difference between overtime as a shock absorber and overtime as a tool.
Clients declare peaks two weeks out on one page. The holiday promo arrived as a plan input instead of a Thursday emergency, and 249 OT hours were chosen, not absorbed.
Units per labor hour measured for six core activities over two weeks of observation. The GM's instinct, written down and tested, is why required hours can be trusted.
Thirty minutes on Monday: forecast to required hours to gap to a decision. OT gets chosen at chosen crews, or a flex action fires instead. Schedules publish 5 days ahead.
Trailing baseline, seasonality factors, promo intake. Explainable on one page, tuned in the Friday review, and explicitly not a black box.
Monday planning, 30 minutes: plan published, schedules out 5 days ahead. Friday review, 20 minutes: forecast vs actual, standards drift, next week's risks. The GM runs both. They ran the last six weeks of the quarter without help.
Labor standards drift as products, packouts, and crews change. A quarterly re-measure of the six core activities is on the calendar, with the same two-week observation method used in the build.
The model is a structured workbook plus one small forecast-refresh script, and the client owns both. Nothing else was stable enough to deserve automation yet. If the workbook ever stops being enough, the model migrates into workforce software as-is: same standards, same forecast, same Monday meeting.